The truth is the truth is the truth. All you need is a pencil and paper to figure out that Gold is heading north with Silver about to break into a sprint. Eventually all lies will come out in the wash and the free market will reign supreme. As the dollar and yes the Euro crumple, there will be a mad rush to precious metals. This march is already beginning in certain sectors such as the tiny American patriot community, who buy up to 25% of the world's silver supply. World Gold demand is $80 billion. The world Silver market is only 1 billion. Americans currently buy less than .2% of the world's physical gold supply while they invest about 25% of the Silver market. Clearly, Americans are aware that Silver has more upside potential. If you take the Gold high of $850 in 1980 and you adjust it for inflation with the rigged U.S. government statistics, you should have a gold price of $2,275. If you factor in that there is actually $14 trillion dollars in circulation, then the fiqure shoots to $53,000 and change. Hey, mister can you spare a dime...
The facts are this the price is only going to go north in the next few years with any dips as merely buying opportunites. Until there is an expansion of Gold and Silver mining, there will be no new supplies added to the market to offset demand. We have not even factored in the population growth which has easily doubled since 1980. Eventually sanity will return to the world with the return of commonsense and yes a gold standard. It's inevitable as you study historical cycles.
To read up on the historical relationship of Gold to money there is the Creature from Jekyll Island.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Silver set to outpreform Gold, Gold at all-time high $1096
Jason Hommel founded the New JH MINT this year to support his national online silver auctions. In 2008, Hommel was selling 5000 ounces of silver per day. He could have sold more, but the turn around times were the limiting factor. It took about 2-4 weeks to obtain 1000 oz. bars, and it took another 3-8 weeks to manufacture 1 oz. rounds. Selling any more than 5000 oz. per day would risk selling out. On a peak day in 2008, Hommel sold 13,800 oz. of silver, which weighed nearly 1000 pounds.
During the fall of 2008, most coin shops around the nation, and around the world, were sold out of silver, and most continue to hold very little silver in inventory.
In contrast, the JH MINT holds over 30,000 oz. of physical silver in inventory at the present time.
After minting nearly 300,000 rounds at a cost of $.50 each but which took over 8 weeks, or minting at $1.50 per round for a faster turn around time, it seemed feasible to found the JH MINT, both to save costs, and to speed up the turn around time.
Opening up a coin shop at the front of the JH MINT was an afterthought. Hommel explains, "I didn't really expect that the community of Grass Valley and Nevada City of about 30,000 people would be able to support a coin shop of our capitalization and size. Usually shops of our size are located near a big city. When my family was buying silver and gold, I was driving all the way down to the Bay Area to buy bullion. Fortunately, our national auctions of silver got big enough to be able to support founding the JH MINT, which allowed for space for the coin shop in the front of the building. So, technically, our shop did not need to be supported by local dealing, we do more business on a national basis, shipping everywhere in the USA."
"However, we have sold about 9 times as much to the public than we have bought, so we have had to re-supply from other gold and silver wholesalers. For over 15 years, the opposite was usually the case, where coin shops would generally buy from the public, and then dump to refiners. But in 2008, the public turned into net buyers when silver prices exceeded $20/oz., and when gold exceeded $1000/oz. for the first time.
"I was pleasantly surprised by our good business volumes the first month of operation, which showed comparable volumes to the Rocklin Coin Shop, which has been in operation for 5 years, which we bought in April, 2009. Perhaps our national presence has helped our local marketing efforts, as many locals are aware of my newsletter at www.silverstockreport.com. And also, it seems our national sales volumes are up due to having founded and opened up a real mint, which seems to have helped our credibility, which is important in the gold and silver business.
"Locals living in our historic gold mining district seem to know that gold and silver prices are too cheap. After all, our town's gold mines are still mostly non operational. If gold prices were really too high, then our town would be a gold boom town again, and clearly it's not. We don't have any major new tunnels in construction, we don't have any mine shafts being built, the old Empire gold mine is still a museum, no timber is being clear-cut to support massive construction of underground tunnels, none of that is happening yet. I'm sure most locals are aware of the attempt of Emgold (www.emgold.com) to re-open the Idaho-Maryland Gold Mine, but it's still just in the development and feasibility phase.
Gold may be at "all time high prices" but those are in nominal terms. If you adjust for inflation, the high of $850/oz. in 1980 can be seen to be about $2,275, if adjusted for inflation in CPI terms. But those are "official government" inflation numbers, which understate inflation. A better inflation adjustment might be found in M3 numbers, or money in the banks, but the government is no longer reporting that statistic. Private sources suggest that M3 has grown by about 8 times since 1980, suggesting an inflation adjusted price of $6,800/oz.
Some have suggested that the US government might back the dollar with a 10% gold backing. But that is completely unrealistic. The JH MINT could back the dollar by 10%. To do that you just need to over value gold by about 10 times. If we offered gold at $11,000 per oz., I'm sure there would be no takers, and we could say that we have "enough gold" to back the dollar by 10%. So a partial gold backing for the currency is just a clever way to disguise the current fraud of the dollar. In truth, the US government cannot even back the dollar even 2% with gold. Official statistics show that the US government has 261 million oz. of gold. With money in the banks exceeding $14 trillion (and a trillion is a million million), that's $14 million / 261 = $53,639/oz.
But other researchers show that the US does not even have 261 million oz. (about 8117 tonnes) of gold, since www.GATA.org researchers suggest there was a 3000 tonne gold swap with Germany.
GATA's thesis is that central banks have been manipulating gold prices for the past 15 years, and are losing the battle to keep prices low. Central banks have been selling and leasing about 1000 tonnes of gold into the market each year, which suppresses the price, acting as additional, and unsustainable, supply. In 2008, central banks finally became net gold buyers.
This month, India bought 200 tonnes of gold from a long awaited sale of 400 tonnes of gold from the IMF. But since India was a custodian of IMF gold, this might have been short covering with no movement of physical gold.
India is now importing about 18% of the world's supply of gold, 450 tonnes per year, yet spends only 1% of India's GDP to do so.
I'd estimate that Americans, in general, purchase only about $2 billion of gold per year, out of a GDP of about $14,400 billion, showing that Americans spend 0.01% of GDP on 2% of the world's gold supply. Clearly, American sentiment is not setting the price, except to say that Americans are helping gold prices remain low by not buying it in significantly meaningful quantities.
In 2009, the US Mint has produced over 1 million oz. in Gold Eagle coins, and I'd estimate that gold eagle sales are half of what we sell to the American public. At $1000/oz., that suggests an annual demand of a paltry $2 billion for America.
Of course, many Americans buy the ETF's, or "exchange traded funds" or have "bullion accounts" with large banks. But those are probably all fraud, in my opinion, since the BIS, the Bank of International Settlements, has calculated the "over the counter" gold derivatives of as high as $600 billion, and in "other precious metals" accounts, which would be mostly silver, as high as $190 billion.
Those numbers are just impossibly high, since the total annual silver mine supply is about 600 million oz., which, at $17/oz., is only a $10 billion annual silver market.
It seems that most Americans who are aware of precious metals seem to know better than people around the world that silver is set to outperform gold.
World gold demand is $80 billion, while world silver investment demand is only $1 billion, or 1/10th of the silver market, with the rest of the silver going towards electronics, jewelry, flatware, and movie production.
So world investors buy 80 times as much gold as silver. But at our coin shop, it's about 50/50, with half of sales being silver, the other half being gold. Americans, while mostly not participating yet in buying gold and silver, do seem to understand that silver will outperform gold.
We have many customers who will bring in gold, and just swap it for silver. We don't have any customers who will give us silver for gold.
Warren Buffett made a curious comment about gold in 1998 at Harvard that has been quoted frequently since, "It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
But gold has a perfect utility. It's a store of value. Anyone with half a brain knows that you protect valuable things from being stolen, you don't leave them unprotected, because there are dishonest people in the world. Gold protects men from other dishonest men. And that's quite a useful value, besides being valuable in itself.
And Gold becomes even more valuable, when other men cannot see the value of gold, because that's when you can buy it cheap, like today. And if you can buy gold cheap, then it's not only a good store of value, but probably it will be an excellent store of value, as it continues to gain in price much faster than most other investments.
Since 2001, gold has increased over four times from $250/oz, to $1090, the last quote on Thursday, Nov. 5th.
SilverStockreport.com
Miracle Mineral Supplement- A real answer to swine flu.
Goldmoneybill.org working to restore the Gold standard.
During the fall of 2008, most coin shops around the nation, and around the world, were sold out of silver, and most continue to hold very little silver in inventory.
In contrast, the JH MINT holds over 30,000 oz. of physical silver in inventory at the present time.
After minting nearly 300,000 rounds at a cost of $.50 each but which took over 8 weeks, or minting at $1.50 per round for a faster turn around time, it seemed feasible to found the JH MINT, both to save costs, and to speed up the turn around time.
Opening up a coin shop at the front of the JH MINT was an afterthought. Hommel explains, "I didn't really expect that the community of Grass Valley and Nevada City of about 30,000 people would be able to support a coin shop of our capitalization and size. Usually shops of our size are located near a big city. When my family was buying silver and gold, I was driving all the way down to the Bay Area to buy bullion. Fortunately, our national auctions of silver got big enough to be able to support founding the JH MINT, which allowed for space for the coin shop in the front of the building. So, technically, our shop did not need to be supported by local dealing, we do more business on a national basis, shipping everywhere in the USA."
"However, we have sold about 9 times as much to the public than we have bought, so we have had to re-supply from other gold and silver wholesalers. For over 15 years, the opposite was usually the case, where coin shops would generally buy from the public, and then dump to refiners. But in 2008, the public turned into net buyers when silver prices exceeded $20/oz., and when gold exceeded $1000/oz. for the first time.
"I was pleasantly surprised by our good business volumes the first month of operation, which showed comparable volumes to the Rocklin Coin Shop, which has been in operation for 5 years, which we bought in April, 2009. Perhaps our national presence has helped our local marketing efforts, as many locals are aware of my newsletter at www.silverstockreport.com. And also, it seems our national sales volumes are up due to having founded and opened up a real mint, which seems to have helped our credibility, which is important in the gold and silver business.
"Locals living in our historic gold mining district seem to know that gold and silver prices are too cheap. After all, our town's gold mines are still mostly non operational. If gold prices were really too high, then our town would be a gold boom town again, and clearly it's not. We don't have any major new tunnels in construction, we don't have any mine shafts being built, the old Empire gold mine is still a museum, no timber is being clear-cut to support massive construction of underground tunnels, none of that is happening yet. I'm sure most locals are aware of the attempt of Emgold (www.emgold.com) to re-open the Idaho-Maryland Gold Mine, but it's still just in the development and feasibility phase.
Gold may be at "all time high prices" but those are in nominal terms. If you adjust for inflation, the high of $850/oz. in 1980 can be seen to be about $2,275, if adjusted for inflation in CPI terms. But those are "official government" inflation numbers, which understate inflation. A better inflation adjustment might be found in M3 numbers, or money in the banks, but the government is no longer reporting that statistic. Private sources suggest that M3 has grown by about 8 times since 1980, suggesting an inflation adjusted price of $6,800/oz.
Some have suggested that the US government might back the dollar with a 10% gold backing. But that is completely unrealistic. The JH MINT could back the dollar by 10%. To do that you just need to over value gold by about 10 times. If we offered gold at $11,000 per oz., I'm sure there would be no takers, and we could say that we have "enough gold" to back the dollar by 10%. So a partial gold backing for the currency is just a clever way to disguise the current fraud of the dollar. In truth, the US government cannot even back the dollar even 2% with gold. Official statistics show that the US government has 261 million oz. of gold. With money in the banks exceeding $14 trillion (and a trillion is a million million), that's $14 million / 261 = $53,639/oz.
But other researchers show that the US does not even have 261 million oz. (about 8117 tonnes) of gold, since www.GATA.org researchers suggest there was a 3000 tonne gold swap with Germany.
GATA's thesis is that central banks have been manipulating gold prices for the past 15 years, and are losing the battle to keep prices low. Central banks have been selling and leasing about 1000 tonnes of gold into the market each year, which suppresses the price, acting as additional, and unsustainable, supply. In 2008, central banks finally became net gold buyers.
This month, India bought 200 tonnes of gold from a long awaited sale of 400 tonnes of gold from the IMF. But since India was a custodian of IMF gold, this might have been short covering with no movement of physical gold.
India is now importing about 18% of the world's supply of gold, 450 tonnes per year, yet spends only 1% of India's GDP to do so.
I'd estimate that Americans, in general, purchase only about $2 billion of gold per year, out of a GDP of about $14,400 billion, showing that Americans spend 0.01% of GDP on 2% of the world's gold supply. Clearly, American sentiment is not setting the price, except to say that Americans are helping gold prices remain low by not buying it in significantly meaningful quantities.
In 2009, the US Mint has produced over 1 million oz. in Gold Eagle coins, and I'd estimate that gold eagle sales are half of what we sell to the American public. At $1000/oz., that suggests an annual demand of a paltry $2 billion for America.
Of course, many Americans buy the ETF's, or "exchange traded funds" or have "bullion accounts" with large banks. But those are probably all fraud, in my opinion, since the BIS, the Bank of International Settlements, has calculated the "over the counter" gold derivatives of as high as $600 billion, and in "other precious metals" accounts, which would be mostly silver, as high as $190 billion.
Those numbers are just impossibly high, since the total annual silver mine supply is about 600 million oz., which, at $17/oz., is only a $10 billion annual silver market.
It seems that most Americans who are aware of precious metals seem to know better than people around the world that silver is set to outperform gold.
World gold demand is $80 billion, while world silver investment demand is only $1 billion, or 1/10th of the silver market, with the rest of the silver going towards electronics, jewelry, flatware, and movie production.
So world investors buy 80 times as much gold as silver. But at our coin shop, it's about 50/50, with half of sales being silver, the other half being gold. Americans, while mostly not participating yet in buying gold and silver, do seem to understand that silver will outperform gold.
We have many customers who will bring in gold, and just swap it for silver. We don't have any customers who will give us silver for gold.
Warren Buffett made a curious comment about gold in 1998 at Harvard that has been quoted frequently since, "It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
But gold has a perfect utility. It's a store of value. Anyone with half a brain knows that you protect valuable things from being stolen, you don't leave them unprotected, because there are dishonest people in the world. Gold protects men from other dishonest men. And that's quite a useful value, besides being valuable in itself.
And Gold becomes even more valuable, when other men cannot see the value of gold, because that's when you can buy it cheap, like today. And if you can buy gold cheap, then it's not only a good store of value, but probably it will be an excellent store of value, as it continues to gain in price much faster than most other investments.
Since 2001, gold has increased over four times from $250/oz, to $1090, the last quote on Thursday, Nov. 5th.
SilverStockreport.com
Miracle Mineral Supplement- A real answer to swine flu.
Goldmoneybill.org working to restore the Gold standard.
Friday, October 23, 2009
The Threat of Confiscation of Gold and Silver
Risks of Silver in an IRA
(Confiscation, bankruptcy, & theft risks!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, October 22nd, 2009
A summary of the main risks:
1. Custodian theft risk
2. Custodian bankruptcy risk
3. IRA rule change risk
4. Confiscation by government risk
5. Third party common theft risk
6. Lack of IRA benefits risk
7. ETF custodian risk
8. ETF sponsor risk
9. Confiscation by government risk
1. Custodian theft risk - All IRA money must be held by a broker, who is the custodian of the IRA account. If you keep up with the news you occasionally hear of brokers who clean out client accounts, and disappear. The largest of such thefts are in the Billions.
2. Custodian bankruptcy risk - The company that is the IRA custodian may go bankrupt. In theory, IRA accounts are safe from such bankruptcy, but only if the custodian was playing by the rules. Companies go bankrupt also, and drain their own employee 401k accounts, too.
3. IRA rule change confiscation risk - The Federal Government, early last year, was contemplating forcing investors to put IRA money into government bonds, "for the safety of the investor" of course.
4. Confiscation by government risk - At present prices, a government confiscation order of silver or gold seems unlikely, due to the relative size of the markets. IE, the $1-2 billion silver investment market is too small to signify anything to the budget of the USA government.
Furthermore, it's unlikely given that the government continues to mint and sell Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles, which can be held in an IRA. Gold Eagle sales are also under $1 billion in the USA.
However, defaults, meaning, the failure to deliver metal, and the massive rise in precious metals prices that follow, happen when they run out of metal, not at certain prices. If the past is any indication, they will run out of metal, while metals prices are still relatively low, and then the price will take off.
I think a confiscation order will be made for several reasons, and will have several effects. It will first be used to let JP Morgan off the hook for their massive precious metal delivery requirements, and it will let them "cover and pay out" all such precious metals over the counter contracts in paper cash, while paper cash prices are low.
Second, a confiscatino order can be used to confiscate the precious metals in all private, non-bank, warehouses where there are storage programs that honestly have the metal. The banking establishment hates competition, and may wipe it out by executive order.
Third, after obtaining precious metal by theft of those institutions who honestly held it for third parties, they can continue their price manipulations for a second season.
5. 3rd party theft risk - Pooling money or metal together into one place always increases the risk of theft by regular and common robbers & thieves. When asked why they robbed banks, the famous robbers said, "Because that's where the money is."
Which one of the following is more safely held and harder to steal? Is 10 million oz. of gold in one place safer, or 10 million oz. of gold held by 10 million armed individuals safer?
6. Lack of IRA benefits risk - The whole point of putting money into an IRA is to let it increase in value, tax free. There are no capital gains taxes when you sell in an IRA, but there taxes are when you "cash out", at which point, the IRA money is counted as real income. If income taxes ever increase to 80-90%, as they did during the Great Depression, then nearly all of your "tax free gains" will go right back to the government, and you will not significantly benefit from the capital gains in your IRA accounts. (ROTH IRAs are an exception.)
The whole point of bullion is that it is private. Once it is in your hands, no government has any ability to track it. After all, you could sell your bullion at any time once you buy it, and there are very few reporting requirements on silver or gold sales. There is a cash transaction report (CTR) required if you sell 10 bags of 90% silver, which would be $10,000 in "cash", and there is a reporting requirement if you sell 25 Gold Eagles at one time. And that's about it. So, for the majority of people, for the majority of bullion sales, they can sell their precious metals at any time, with no reporting requirement, and thus, it is entirely up to them to volunteer the information about their capital gains that they may have "earned".
7. ETF custodian risk - Many people put IRA money directly into the ETF's for convenience, so I will now talk about ETF risks. The ETF custodian is the one who vaults the precious metal. Ok, if you do choose an ETF, please choose CEF, the Central Fund of Canada. They are the only one who I think actually has a good chance that they actually have the metal. But even CEF is not safe, as they are in Canada, and the Canadian government has no gold or silver. Thus, in the event of a Canadian currency crisis, Canada is likely to confiscate the metal in CEF or any other Canadian storage program or bank. Canadian banks, in general, are not more sound than those in the US, they are less sound, in my well researched opinion. Many Canadain banks issue silver certifictes, yet there were many reports of people last year who could not obtain silver at any price from their banks in 2008 during the retail silver shortages.
The SLV and GLD ETF's in my opinion, are total frauds. The custodian of SLV is JP Morgan, who is the largest silver short at the COMEX, and who has the largest position in over the counter derivatives at over $80 trillion. That's a tremendous conflict of interest, and a clear warning sign. In my opinion, the silver in the SLV is already "long gone", or they only have a tiny fraction of the silver on hand. What's worse is that they can now deliver SLV shares to futures contract holders, and they can deliver futures contracts to back up SLV shares. Ponzi behind Ponzi, fraud backing fraud. The GLD custodian is HSBC, a similar bullion bank with similar positions and problems.
8. ETF sponsor risk - The ETF's are also at risk if their sponsor goes bankrupt. It could disrupt trading, or the viability of the whole thing. Or, it could be used as an excuse by the custodians to default on delivery of silver, trying to place the blame on the structure or sponsor of the ETF, instead of their own fraud. In fact, the custodians could force the bankruptcy of the sponsor, as an excuse to fail to deliver, or as an excuse to confiscate what little bullion the fund may actually have, and then deliver futures instead.
9. ETF short selling risk - Also, there is the short selling risk, as the EFTs can be sold, naked short, which circumvent the entire point of each share being backed by metal. Shares sold short are not backed by metal deliveries, and can be used to manipulate prices lower. In my opinion, investors who put money into the ETFs are helping to manipulate precious metals prices lower. Demand for physical metals is diverted by these paper alternatives.
9. Confiscation by government risk - Yes, I'm listing this twice, actually, three ways. IRA money is at risk of confiscation by government, simply by being in an IRA. IRA moneies can be forced to be invested in bonds, or they can be taxed at extremely high rates upon withdrawl. But the third government confiscation risk is if the government confiscates the ETFs, as a means to let the custodians who are practicing fraud off the hook, as a method of "bailout".
Confiscation will never include the government sending thugs to all 100 million USA homes to do room to room, and vault to vault searches. It never has, and never will, not in America, not as long as the people still have guns and working vaults. Government confiscation thugs would get to the 10th house, be blown away, and promptly end the searches. If lazy pot smokers have been able to hide pot from the government for all these years, and the "war on drugs" been a total failure, isn't that any guide at how much more impossible it would be to take silver or gold from the militant, ready, anxious, wise silver and gold investors, many of whom are veterans? The government would and could only confiscate the silver in known storage locations, such as the ETF's or other popular precious metals storage programs that actually have the bullion.
If you are comfortable with all these risks, please pay attention to the news on a regular basis so you might be able to take appropriate action at the appropriate time.
I used to have money in an IRA. I no longer do. I did not have to pay the 10% penalty upon withdrawl, because it was in inherited IRA. I cashed out my IRA because I have been paying close attention to the news.
Remember, governments steal. It's what they do.
That's the entire point of owning gold and silver. They are the hardest assets to find, and the hardest to steal.
The government is already confiscating money through taxation, and inflation through bank bailouts. The bailouts also indicate that the assets those banks hold have been stolen long ago. To trust them with your IRA accounts, or ETFs, is just begging for trouble.
So, what to do? Take it home. Get a home security vault. Vaults work. It's why they make them. They make many sizes, ranging from a small cash box, to a large gun vault the size of a refrigerator. Bolt the vault down from the inside to wall studs, or to concrete in your garage floor. Maybe disguise the vault with a cabinet. Have multiple vaults if you can afford it, or need it. Get a security system, burgler alarm, & dogs if necessary. Gates or bars outside your home or driveway are another option. it's very simple, and reliable, and people have been doing that for hundreds of years with great success.
if you are afraid to put one in your own home, consider moving to a better neighborhood. Consider putting a vault in your parents' or childrens' home for diversification. You don't have to give them the combo, if they are nice about it.
Home theft risk is very very small by comparison. Common home theives getting into a secure vault is very, very rare. It's so rare, they love to put it on the news if it happens, as a way to condition you to trusting the banks.
==========
I strongly advise you to get real gold and silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can.
Call us today.
Yes, we sell silver, and gold at the JH MINT!
Buy it now! Buy Silver or Gold Now!
Inventory & Price List
Call the JH MINT, 10AM to 5PM Pacific, Monday to Friday:
100 oz. silver minimum, USA shipping, wire transfer only!
(530) 273-8175
Janelle (530) 913 0553 silver_support1@vzw.blackberry.net
jhmint.com
Active, live price quotes list:
Goldmoneybill.org Working to restore a sound based metal currency as per the U.S. Constitution.
(Confiscation, bankruptcy, & theft risks!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, October 22nd, 2009
A summary of the main risks:
1. Custodian theft risk
2. Custodian bankruptcy risk
3. IRA rule change risk
4. Confiscation by government risk
5. Third party common theft risk
6. Lack of IRA benefits risk
7. ETF custodian risk
8. ETF sponsor risk
9. Confiscation by government risk
1. Custodian theft risk - All IRA money must be held by a broker, who is the custodian of the IRA account. If you keep up with the news you occasionally hear of brokers who clean out client accounts, and disappear. The largest of such thefts are in the Billions.
2. Custodian bankruptcy risk - The company that is the IRA custodian may go bankrupt. In theory, IRA accounts are safe from such bankruptcy, but only if the custodian was playing by the rules. Companies go bankrupt also, and drain their own employee 401k accounts, too.
3. IRA rule change confiscation risk - The Federal Government, early last year, was contemplating forcing investors to put IRA money into government bonds, "for the safety of the investor" of course.
4. Confiscation by government risk - At present prices, a government confiscation order of silver or gold seems unlikely, due to the relative size of the markets. IE, the $1-2 billion silver investment market is too small to signify anything to the budget of the USA government.
Furthermore, it's unlikely given that the government continues to mint and sell Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles, which can be held in an IRA. Gold Eagle sales are also under $1 billion in the USA.
However, defaults, meaning, the failure to deliver metal, and the massive rise in precious metals prices that follow, happen when they run out of metal, not at certain prices. If the past is any indication, they will run out of metal, while metals prices are still relatively low, and then the price will take off.
I think a confiscation order will be made for several reasons, and will have several effects. It will first be used to let JP Morgan off the hook for their massive precious metal delivery requirements, and it will let them "cover and pay out" all such precious metals over the counter contracts in paper cash, while paper cash prices are low.
Second, a confiscatino order can be used to confiscate the precious metals in all private, non-bank, warehouses where there are storage programs that honestly have the metal. The banking establishment hates competition, and may wipe it out by executive order.
Third, after obtaining precious metal by theft of those institutions who honestly held it for third parties, they can continue their price manipulations for a second season.
5. 3rd party theft risk - Pooling money or metal together into one place always increases the risk of theft by regular and common robbers & thieves. When asked why they robbed banks, the famous robbers said, "Because that's where the money is."
Which one of the following is more safely held and harder to steal? Is 10 million oz. of gold in one place safer, or 10 million oz. of gold held by 10 million armed individuals safer?
6. Lack of IRA benefits risk - The whole point of putting money into an IRA is to let it increase in value, tax free. There are no capital gains taxes when you sell in an IRA, but there taxes are when you "cash out", at which point, the IRA money is counted as real income. If income taxes ever increase to 80-90%, as they did during the Great Depression, then nearly all of your "tax free gains" will go right back to the government, and you will not significantly benefit from the capital gains in your IRA accounts. (ROTH IRAs are an exception.)
The whole point of bullion is that it is private. Once it is in your hands, no government has any ability to track it. After all, you could sell your bullion at any time once you buy it, and there are very few reporting requirements on silver or gold sales. There is a cash transaction report (CTR) required if you sell 10 bags of 90% silver, which would be $10,000 in "cash", and there is a reporting requirement if you sell 25 Gold Eagles at one time. And that's about it. So, for the majority of people, for the majority of bullion sales, they can sell their precious metals at any time, with no reporting requirement, and thus, it is entirely up to them to volunteer the information about their capital gains that they may have "earned".
7. ETF custodian risk - Many people put IRA money directly into the ETF's for convenience, so I will now talk about ETF risks. The ETF custodian is the one who vaults the precious metal. Ok, if you do choose an ETF, please choose CEF, the Central Fund of Canada. They are the only one who I think actually has a good chance that they actually have the metal. But even CEF is not safe, as they are in Canada, and the Canadian government has no gold or silver. Thus, in the event of a Canadian currency crisis, Canada is likely to confiscate the metal in CEF or any other Canadian storage program or bank. Canadian banks, in general, are not more sound than those in the US, they are less sound, in my well researched opinion. Many Canadain banks issue silver certifictes, yet there were many reports of people last year who could not obtain silver at any price from their banks in 2008 during the retail silver shortages.
The SLV and GLD ETF's in my opinion, are total frauds. The custodian of SLV is JP Morgan, who is the largest silver short at the COMEX, and who has the largest position in over the counter derivatives at over $80 trillion. That's a tremendous conflict of interest, and a clear warning sign. In my opinion, the silver in the SLV is already "long gone", or they only have a tiny fraction of the silver on hand. What's worse is that they can now deliver SLV shares to futures contract holders, and they can deliver futures contracts to back up SLV shares. Ponzi behind Ponzi, fraud backing fraud. The GLD custodian is HSBC, a similar bullion bank with similar positions and problems.
8. ETF sponsor risk - The ETF's are also at risk if their sponsor goes bankrupt. It could disrupt trading, or the viability of the whole thing. Or, it could be used as an excuse by the custodians to default on delivery of silver, trying to place the blame on the structure or sponsor of the ETF, instead of their own fraud. In fact, the custodians could force the bankruptcy of the sponsor, as an excuse to fail to deliver, or as an excuse to confiscate what little bullion the fund may actually have, and then deliver futures instead.
9. ETF short selling risk - Also, there is the short selling risk, as the EFTs can be sold, naked short, which circumvent the entire point of each share being backed by metal. Shares sold short are not backed by metal deliveries, and can be used to manipulate prices lower. In my opinion, investors who put money into the ETFs are helping to manipulate precious metals prices lower. Demand for physical metals is diverted by these paper alternatives.
9. Confiscation by government risk - Yes, I'm listing this twice, actually, three ways. IRA money is at risk of confiscation by government, simply by being in an IRA. IRA moneies can be forced to be invested in bonds, or they can be taxed at extremely high rates upon withdrawl. But the third government confiscation risk is if the government confiscates the ETFs, as a means to let the custodians who are practicing fraud off the hook, as a method of "bailout".
Confiscation will never include the government sending thugs to all 100 million USA homes to do room to room, and vault to vault searches. It never has, and never will, not in America, not as long as the people still have guns and working vaults. Government confiscation thugs would get to the 10th house, be blown away, and promptly end the searches. If lazy pot smokers have been able to hide pot from the government for all these years, and the "war on drugs" been a total failure, isn't that any guide at how much more impossible it would be to take silver or gold from the militant, ready, anxious, wise silver and gold investors, many of whom are veterans? The government would and could only confiscate the silver in known storage locations, such as the ETF's or other popular precious metals storage programs that actually have the bullion.
If you are comfortable with all these risks, please pay attention to the news on a regular basis so you might be able to take appropriate action at the appropriate time.
I used to have money in an IRA. I no longer do. I did not have to pay the 10% penalty upon withdrawl, because it was in inherited IRA. I cashed out my IRA because I have been paying close attention to the news.
Remember, governments steal. It's what they do.
That's the entire point of owning gold and silver. They are the hardest assets to find, and the hardest to steal.
The government is already confiscating money through taxation, and inflation through bank bailouts. The bailouts also indicate that the assets those banks hold have been stolen long ago. To trust them with your IRA accounts, or ETFs, is just begging for trouble.
So, what to do? Take it home. Get a home security vault. Vaults work. It's why they make them. They make many sizes, ranging from a small cash box, to a large gun vault the size of a refrigerator. Bolt the vault down from the inside to wall studs, or to concrete in your garage floor. Maybe disguise the vault with a cabinet. Have multiple vaults if you can afford it, or need it. Get a security system, burgler alarm, & dogs if necessary. Gates or bars outside your home or driveway are another option. it's very simple, and reliable, and people have been doing that for hundreds of years with great success.
if you are afraid to put one in your own home, consider moving to a better neighborhood. Consider putting a vault in your parents' or childrens' home for diversification. You don't have to give them the combo, if they are nice about it.
Home theft risk is very very small by comparison. Common home theives getting into a secure vault is very, very rare. It's so rare, they love to put it on the news if it happens, as a way to condition you to trusting the banks.
==========
I strongly advise you to get real gold and silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can.
Call us today.
Yes, we sell silver, and gold at the JH MINT!
Buy it now! Buy Silver or Gold Now!
Inventory & Price List
Call the JH MINT, 10AM to 5PM Pacific, Monday to Friday:
100 oz. silver minimum, USA shipping, wire transfer only!
(530) 273-8175
Janelle (530) 913 0553 silver_support1@vzw.blackberry.net
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Goldmoneybill.org Working to restore a sound based metal currency as per the U.S. Constitution.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Gold At $5000 per oz Do the Math, just do the Math
(So little gold at $1000/oz. for China, Germany, or Oil nations!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, October 9th, 2009
There is very little understanding of the relative size of the gold market, let alone the silver market.
In the gold market, the IMF has continued to "threaten" to sell 400 tonnes of gold, about once or twice a year, for the past ten years, to help "relieve the poverty" (yeah, right) of indebted nations who generally produce gold, and would actually be benefited by a higher gold price, not a lower gold price. This always results in a flurry of news stories, and usually panic among gold investors who are on leverage, who know next to nothing.
You never hear about how China actually was buying 500 tonnes over the last 8 years.
You never hear in the popular news how China wants to buy $80 billion more gold.
That would use only a tiny fraction of China's $2131 billion of foreign exchange reserves.
$80 billion in gold, at $1000/oz., is 80 million oz., which, divided by 32,151 oz/tonne, is 2488 tonnes, which is almost exactly the same amount as the annual production of all the world's gold mines.
You never hear that China has so many dollars that they want to buy all the world's annual gold mining production, as a small and tiny diversification, for years to come. But I just provided all the proof for that statement.
You never hear in the mainstream press how Germany swapped about 3000 tonnes of gold with the US, and wants their gold back, which again, is just over the entire world annual gold mining production.
You never hear that if the oil producing nations decided to sell oil for gold, what that would mean for the gold price.
Well, actually, we did hear something similar to that this week, a "vicious rumor" that led to the current $50 rally in the gold price.
Recent article:
The demise of the dollar
In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading
By Robert Fisk
Tuesday, 6 October 2009
But this might mean only that "gold should go up" is maybe all you'd hear. And actually, we quickly heard denials of the rumors that the Saudis would sell oil in something other than dollars.
But what are the implications? Anyone run the numbers? Why is it that in today's world, no journalist knows how to run the numbers to see the implications? Was everyone born after 1950 a failure in basic math classes? I mean, come on, this kind of analysis only requires the application of 7th grade math!
I ran the numbers eariler this year, in March.
At $40/barrel, the world spends $1.2 trillion, or $1,200 billion, on oil per year.
Oil is now $71/barrel. So $1.2 x 71/40 = $2.3 trillion spent on oil per year now.
Gold is now $1055/oz., which, at 80 million oz., is $85 billion on gold per year.
Thus, if all the world's new annual oil production was sold for all the world's new annual gold production, gold prices would have to rise by a factor of 2,300/85 which equals 27 times, or 27 x $1055 which implies a gold price of $28,500 per oz.
And that would, of course, allow no room for China to buy any of the 2500 tonnes of gold that they want, nor allow the US any room to buy back Germany's 3000 tonnes of gold that they sold to manipulate the market downward to fool the world into thinking that the dollar was somehow "strong".
I don't know why people don't get this. Math matters. To engineers, it's life and death when building a bridge. You'd think that the world's engineers and math teachers would be screaming at the top of their lungs to get people to buy gold, simply because of the implications of the math. Where are they? The thing I don't understand is why most people refuse to run the numbers. And why don't they understand the implications of the numbers that I present?
It's clear to me that gold is going higher than I can imagine or forecast, and that silver will do a lot better.
I strongly advise you to get real gold and silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can.
Call us today.
Yes, we sell silver, and gold at the JH MINT!
Buy it now! Buy Silver or Gold Now!
Inventory & Price List
Goldmoneybill.org Promoting fiscal sanity. Support a return to metal-backed currencies through state sound money bill.
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, October 9th, 2009
There is very little understanding of the relative size of the gold market, let alone the silver market.
In the gold market, the IMF has continued to "threaten" to sell 400 tonnes of gold, about once or twice a year, for the past ten years, to help "relieve the poverty" (yeah, right) of indebted nations who generally produce gold, and would actually be benefited by a higher gold price, not a lower gold price. This always results in a flurry of news stories, and usually panic among gold investors who are on leverage, who know next to nothing.
You never hear about how China actually was buying 500 tonnes over the last 8 years.
You never hear in the popular news how China wants to buy $80 billion more gold.
That would use only a tiny fraction of China's $2131 billion of foreign exchange reserves.
$80 billion in gold, at $1000/oz., is 80 million oz., which, divided by 32,151 oz/tonne, is 2488 tonnes, which is almost exactly the same amount as the annual production of all the world's gold mines.
You never hear that China has so many dollars that they want to buy all the world's annual gold mining production, as a small and tiny diversification, for years to come. But I just provided all the proof for that statement.
You never hear in the mainstream press how Germany swapped about 3000 tonnes of gold with the US, and wants their gold back, which again, is just over the entire world annual gold mining production.
You never hear that if the oil producing nations decided to sell oil for gold, what that would mean for the gold price.
Well, actually, we did hear something similar to that this week, a "vicious rumor" that led to the current $50 rally in the gold price.
Recent article:
The demise of the dollar
In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading
By Robert Fisk
Tuesday, 6 October 2009
But this might mean only that "gold should go up" is maybe all you'd hear. And actually, we quickly heard denials of the rumors that the Saudis would sell oil in something other than dollars.
But what are the implications? Anyone run the numbers? Why is it that in today's world, no journalist knows how to run the numbers to see the implications? Was everyone born after 1950 a failure in basic math classes? I mean, come on, this kind of analysis only requires the application of 7th grade math!
I ran the numbers eariler this year, in March.
At $40/barrel, the world spends $1.2 trillion, or $1,200 billion, on oil per year.
Oil is now $71/barrel. So $1.2 x 71/40 = $2.3 trillion spent on oil per year now.
Gold is now $1055/oz., which, at 80 million oz., is $85 billion on gold per year.
Thus, if all the world's new annual oil production was sold for all the world's new annual gold production, gold prices would have to rise by a factor of 2,300/85 which equals 27 times, or 27 x $1055 which implies a gold price of $28,500 per oz.
And that would, of course, allow no room for China to buy any of the 2500 tonnes of gold that they want, nor allow the US any room to buy back Germany's 3000 tonnes of gold that they sold to manipulate the market downward to fool the world into thinking that the dollar was somehow "strong".
I don't know why people don't get this. Math matters. To engineers, it's life and death when building a bridge. You'd think that the world's engineers and math teachers would be screaming at the top of their lungs to get people to buy gold, simply because of the implications of the math. Where are they? The thing I don't understand is why most people refuse to run the numbers. And why don't they understand the implications of the numbers that I present?
It's clear to me that gold is going higher than I can imagine or forecast, and that silver will do a lot better.
I strongly advise you to get real gold and silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can.
Call us today.
Yes, we sell silver, and gold at the JH MINT!
Buy it now! Buy Silver or Gold Now!
Inventory & Price List
Goldmoneybill.org Promoting fiscal sanity. Support a return to metal-backed currencies through state sound money bill.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
The Tiny Silver Market ready to explode with new investors
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, September 25th, 2009
The Silver Market is small. Very small. I don't think people quite understand how small it is, nor understand fully the implications, meaning how much higher silver prices must go as the market grows to accommodate future silver buyers.
Confusing matters is that the terms million, billion, and trillion mean different things, in different nations, and other nations also have different notations for how to write numbers exceeding 1000. Furthermore, most Americans are also unfamiliar with the terms, since most people don't use these terms in daily life. Who needs a billion french fries? But you do need to understand the numbers, in order to interpret political events, such as the amounts being spent by Congress.
Here are the American conventions, which I use in my writings. A thousand is written as 1000 and is notated with commas as 1,000. In America, we use a comma after every three zeros, starting from the far right, so every comma signifies another multiple of 1000.
A million is a thousand thousand. 1000 x 1000 = 1,000,000, also written as a million.
A billion is a thousand million. 1,000 x 1,000,000 = 1,000,000,000 also written as a billion.
A trillion is a thousand billion. 1,000 x 1,000,000,000 = 1,000,000,000,000 also written as a trillion.
A quadrillion is a thousand trillion 1,000 x 1,000,000,000,000 = 1,000,000,000,000,000 also written as a quadrillion.
Knowing that, we can now interpret the following key figures:
The annual Federal Budget these days is about $3 trillion, which can also be written as $3000 billion, or $3,000,000 million, or $3,000,000,000,000.
Federal Budget
World annual silver production is about 600 million ounces. World annual silver investment is about 50-100 million ounces. All of mine production, and more, including recycling, is consumed by industry, leaving very little left over for any investment.
At $16/oz., x 75 million oz. = $1,200 million, or $1.2 billion, or $0.0012 Trillion.
Again, let's compare:
US annual government spending: $3 trillion
World annual silver investment demand: $0.0012 Trillion
Can you say, "The US government is spending way more than exists in the entire world?" I can. It sounds funny to say it, but I understand what I mean when I say it.
But that's only silver, some will protest. But adding gold to the mix does not help. Watch.
World annual gold mine production is 2500 tonnes, which is (x 32,151 oz/tonne) is 80.3 million ounces. At $1000/oz., that's $80 billion dollars, or $0.08 Trillion.
See, not even all the gold in the entire world's annual production would help the US budget. Gold would have to increase by a factor of 3000 / 80, which is 37.5 times, in order for the entire world's gold production to equal the US government's annual budget. See, gold will go way above $37,500/oz. by the time this bull market in gold is finished, because there are other people in the world who want gold in addition to the US government.
China wants gold. China has said they want $80 billion worth of gold. China has $2130 billion to spend on gold, or $2.13 trillion of foreign exchange reserves.
China's Foreign Reserves.
If China tries to buy a mere $80 billion of gold within one year, the gold price will likely head to $1500 to $2000/oz. this year. But China does not want to push up the price of gold to make it double in price. If they do, the value of the remainder of their $2130 billion will be cut in half.
Too bad for China, they have no choice. The value of their paper money will be cut by 95% or more anyway, even if they do nothing, as other nations, besides the US and China, also want gold. So it will come down to the reality, for everyone, that some gold is better than no gold! And silver, of course, is always better than gold, because silver will increase in value much faster!
How will $2,130 billion of China's foreign exchange reserves fit into the annual silver market of $1 billion? Think about it. Think carefully. Think hard. Think!
Here's what I think. If China's people started buying $1 billion of silver per year, the silver price would head to $25/oz.
If China's people started buying $10 billion of silver per year, the silver price would head to $75/oz.
If China's people started buying $100 billion of silver per year, the silver price would head to about $750 per oz.
Can you say "Not enough silver!"? I can. There is a world silver shortage, and there will be a world silver shortage for the next few decades to come, probably until silver exceeds thousands of dollars per ounce in price!
There is no possible way that the silver price can be contained for very long, unless they discover a way to divert investment demand away from the limited physical silver, and convince people to hold things like ETFs, or futures contracts, or 'bullion accounts' instead. Oh yes, they have. But not for long, as the truth is getting out.
Sprott's Embry warns investors to make sure ETFs backed by precious metals
EFT's
The Bank of International Settlements reports there are $111 billion in "Other Precious Metals (IE, Silver) over the counter derivatives, as of Dec. 2008. (We await June 2009 stats.)
BIS
from
June 09 BIS
A man asked me this week at the JH MINT, "How'd you get into this?" I laughed and said, "The obvious!" He laughed too. What's not obvious to me is why everyone else is so deceived by paper money. It's really not all that special at all. it's just numbers on paper, signifying nothing!
One of my major wholesalers has a bullion precious metals inventory of $1/2 billion including both silver and gold. Another major wholesaler is a major warehouse for the COMEX. I don't think either one would let me order more than a few million dollars at once at a fixed price, because that would probably move the price up.
Yes, we can handle multi million dollar silver orders by placing orders direct with many of the nation's largest wholesalers, but be prepared to move up the price as you buy. And we can order for delivery in Grass Valley at the JH MINT. Call us today.
USCivilFlags.org What America would look like debt-free, based on the original US Treasury flag.
by Jason Hommel, September 25th, 2009
The Silver Market is small. Very small. I don't think people quite understand how small it is, nor understand fully the implications, meaning how much higher silver prices must go as the market grows to accommodate future silver buyers.
Confusing matters is that the terms million, billion, and trillion mean different things, in different nations, and other nations also have different notations for how to write numbers exceeding 1000. Furthermore, most Americans are also unfamiliar with the terms, since most people don't use these terms in daily life. Who needs a billion french fries? But you do need to understand the numbers, in order to interpret political events, such as the amounts being spent by Congress.
Here are the American conventions, which I use in my writings. A thousand is written as 1000 and is notated with commas as 1,000. In America, we use a comma after every three zeros, starting from the far right, so every comma signifies another multiple of 1000.
A million is a thousand thousand. 1000 x 1000 = 1,000,000, also written as a million.
A billion is a thousand million. 1,000 x 1,000,000 = 1,000,000,000 also written as a billion.
A trillion is a thousand billion. 1,000 x 1,000,000,000 = 1,000,000,000,000 also written as a trillion.
A quadrillion is a thousand trillion 1,000 x 1,000,000,000,000 = 1,000,000,000,000,000 also written as a quadrillion.
Knowing that, we can now interpret the following key figures:
The annual Federal Budget these days is about $3 trillion, which can also be written as $3000 billion, or $3,000,000 million, or $3,000,000,000,000.
Federal Budget
World annual silver production is about 600 million ounces. World annual silver investment is about 50-100 million ounces. All of mine production, and more, including recycling, is consumed by industry, leaving very little left over for any investment.
At $16/oz., x 75 million oz. = $1,200 million, or $1.2 billion, or $0.0012 Trillion.
Again, let's compare:
US annual government spending: $3 trillion
World annual silver investment demand: $0.0012 Trillion
Can you say, "The US government is spending way more than exists in the entire world?" I can. It sounds funny to say it, but I understand what I mean when I say it.
But that's only silver, some will protest. But adding gold to the mix does not help. Watch.
World annual gold mine production is 2500 tonnes, which is (x 32,151 oz/tonne) is 80.3 million ounces. At $1000/oz., that's $80 billion dollars, or $0.08 Trillion.
See, not even all the gold in the entire world's annual production would help the US budget. Gold would have to increase by a factor of 3000 / 80, which is 37.5 times, in order for the entire world's gold production to equal the US government's annual budget. See, gold will go way above $37,500/oz. by the time this bull market in gold is finished, because there are other people in the world who want gold in addition to the US government.
China wants gold. China has said they want $80 billion worth of gold. China has $2130 billion to spend on gold, or $2.13 trillion of foreign exchange reserves.
China's Foreign Reserves.
If China tries to buy a mere $80 billion of gold within one year, the gold price will likely head to $1500 to $2000/oz. this year. But China does not want to push up the price of gold to make it double in price. If they do, the value of the remainder of their $2130 billion will be cut in half.
Too bad for China, they have no choice. The value of their paper money will be cut by 95% or more anyway, even if they do nothing, as other nations, besides the US and China, also want gold. So it will come down to the reality, for everyone, that some gold is better than no gold! And silver, of course, is always better than gold, because silver will increase in value much faster!
How will $2,130 billion of China's foreign exchange reserves fit into the annual silver market of $1 billion? Think about it. Think carefully. Think hard. Think!
Here's what I think. If China's people started buying $1 billion of silver per year, the silver price would head to $25/oz.
If China's people started buying $10 billion of silver per year, the silver price would head to $75/oz.
If China's people started buying $100 billion of silver per year, the silver price would head to about $750 per oz.
Can you say "Not enough silver!"? I can. There is a world silver shortage, and there will be a world silver shortage for the next few decades to come, probably until silver exceeds thousands of dollars per ounce in price!
There is no possible way that the silver price can be contained for very long, unless they discover a way to divert investment demand away from the limited physical silver, and convince people to hold things like ETFs, or futures contracts, or 'bullion accounts' instead. Oh yes, they have. But not for long, as the truth is getting out.
Sprott's Embry warns investors to make sure ETFs backed by precious metals
EFT's
The Bank of International Settlements reports there are $111 billion in "Other Precious Metals (IE, Silver) over the counter derivatives, as of Dec. 2008. (We await June 2009 stats.)
BIS
from
June 09 BIS
A man asked me this week at the JH MINT, "How'd you get into this?" I laughed and said, "The obvious!" He laughed too. What's not obvious to me is why everyone else is so deceived by paper money. It's really not all that special at all. it's just numbers on paper, signifying nothing!
One of my major wholesalers has a bullion precious metals inventory of $1/2 billion including both silver and gold. Another major wholesaler is a major warehouse for the COMEX. I don't think either one would let me order more than a few million dollars at once at a fixed price, because that would probably move the price up.
Yes, we can handle multi million dollar silver orders by placing orders direct with many of the nation's largest wholesalers, but be prepared to move up the price as you buy. And we can order for delivery in Grass Valley at the JH MINT. Call us today.
USCivilFlags.org What America would look like debt-free, based on the original US Treasury flag.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Montana Sound Money Bill Video
The price of Silver has risen 50% this year. Sound Money is the only defense against theft by inflation.
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